--K.N. Ramachandran THE CHINESE CALCULUS OF DETERRENCE By Allen S. Whiting Ann Arbor, The University of Michigan Press, 1975, 299, 15.00 VOLUME I NUMBER 2 April - June 1976 The People's Republic of China’s deep concern for its security—a concern
inherited from the Manchus, who first became aware of the vulnerability of the
Middle Kingdom when the expansionist West gained a foothold on the shores of
Cathay in early 19th century—had been, and continues to be, a constant and
critical factor shaping China’s interaction with the outside world. In other
words, China’s security concern, which has almost become an obsession, was the
logical outcome of the Communist understanding of the historical experience of
modern China in its encounter with the West. The concern with security, for
instance, was at the heart of the Sino-Soviet dispute, although the ideological
focus of the quarrel made it appear as if it was a holy war over how best to
implement the principles enshrined in the scriptures of Marxism-Leninism.
In the book under review, Professor Allen S. Whiting, one of the
high-priests of Chinese studies in the United States, has constructed a model
of Chinese calculus of deterrence in the context of China’s threat-perceptions.
He examines China’s approach towards the Sino-Indian conflict (1962) and
China’s response towards the US escalation of war in Indo-China during the
mid-sixties. The book provides ample evidence of his talents both as a
professor and an intelligence analyst. He was with the US State Department
during the mid-sixties as Director of the Office of Research and Analysis, Far
East, and had good access to the CIA and the NSA.
Whiting speaks of the Chinese calculus of deterrence ‘as an attempt to infer
what general strategy underlies persistent patterns of behaviour aimed at
persuading a perceived opponent that costs of his continuing conflictual
activity will eventually prove unacceptable to him because of the Chinese
response.’ In simple terms, it is an amalgam of Chinese strategies and tactics
in the political and military sphere aimed at dissuading an adversary from
pursuing an unprofitable course.
The first part of the study discusses the calculus of deterrence as it
operated during the Sino-Indian crisis of 1961-62. It may, however, be noted
that it is not a study of the Sino-Indian border question. It focuses attention
on Chinese decision-making within the over-all threat perceptions of Peking.
The threat perceived from Taiwan-US alliance, the crisis that was brewing
in Sinkiang, where the Soviet Union was encouraging restive Chinese minorities,
the failure of the Great Leap Forward, the ... Table of Contents >> |