The Rural QuagmireAmaresh Bagchi RURAL MONEY MARKETS IN INDIA By Subrata Ghatak Macmillan, New Delhi, 1976, vii plus 230, 58.00 VOLUME II NUMBER 1 January-February 1977 In economic matters judgements based
on statistically tested hypotheses are surely to be preferred to hunches or
guesses however clever. Where however 'facts' derived through statistical
analysis fly in the face of what is widely believed to be the reality, before
proceeding to accept them without reservations one has to take care to see
that the data do not suffer from any infirmity that might vitiate the findings
and that the inferences do not go beyond what is strictly warranted by the
techniques employed. For statistical analysis, though useful as a check against
snap judgements, has its limitations and in any case cannot help to quantify
facts not fed into it.
Ghatak does not seem to be
inhibited by any such qualms while claiming originality for fitting least
square equations to rural credit data and drawing such conclusions as that
interest rates in the Indian rural economy are not high or usurious—they range no higher than 15 or 17 per cent.
No doubt the data which
yielded these results were drawn from impeccable sources—All India Rural
Credit Survey of 1951-1952 and All India Debt and Investment Survey of 1961-62.
But did not the Rural Credit Review Committee strike a different note while
reviewing the picture depicted by the Rural Credit Survey? To quote what that
Committee said about interest rates—
Of the total borrowings of cultivators
from the private (and non-institutional) agencies of credit, borrowings at an
annual rate of interest of 25 per cent or more formed as much as 70 per cent in
Orissa, 49 per cent in Tripura, 40 percent in West Bengal and Himachal Pradesh,
29 per cent in Uttar Pradesh and 27 per cent in Bihar. Borrowings at interest
rates of 50 per cent or above were also reported and constituted as high as 64
per cent of the total borrowings within districts selected for the survey in
the old Madhya Bharat State and around 30 per cent in a few other selected
districts. It was found that the amounts borrowed from the non-institutional
agencies at rates in excess of those stipulated in the money lending enactments
of the concerned states, amounted to over 80. per cent in Bihar, Madras,
Orissa, West Bengal and Hyderabad and about 65 per cent in Madhya Pradesh and
PEPSU.
Could the situation have
changed so dramatically in the next ten years (the period of reference for the
study) to warrant the conclusion ... Table of Contents >> |