Suvrat Raju By Achin Vanaik Orient Blackswan, Delhi, 2015, pp. 232, Rs. 575.00 VOLUME XL NUMBER 5 May 2016 At a recent meeting, the Pakistani National
Command Authority, chaired
by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, declared
that ‘nuclear deterrence is the factor
of stability in South Asia.’ Its members
would do well to read a copy of Achin Vanaik’s
After the Bomb: Reflections on India’s Nuclear
Journey. One of Vanaik’s central points is that
this belief in nuclear deterrence is wrong and
dangerous—not only in the South Asian context,
but everywhere in the world. He weaves
this message into a richer narrative, in which
he analyses the politics of India’s decision to
test nuclear weapons in 1998, places this
within a broader global context of nuclear
weapon’s issues, and indicates a way forward.
Vanaik describes deterrence as the ‘irrational
hope that a terrible fear of the consequences
of nuclear war will continuously …
promote wise decisions by fallible human
beings’ (p. 45) and systematically lists ten
fallacies of the idea that it leads to stability.
For example, after acquiring nuclear weapons,
governments then seek to acquire a ‘second
strike’ capability to guard against the
possibility that its rivals might finish off its
nuclear capacity in a ‘first strike’. Historically
this process has led to the growth of
enormous stockpiles: Russia and the United
States continue to maintain thousands of
nuclear weapons and now Pakistan and India
have both acquired in excess of a hundred
nuclear bombs. Vanaik argues that it
does not make sense to claim that these
nuclear weapons ‘are never going to be used
and that their purpose is only to prevent a
nuclear conflict’ (p. 47). To the contrary, deterrence
requires nuclear threats to be ‘credible’,
since otherwise they would not deter.
This leads to repeated displays of ‘nuclear
brandishing and brinkmanship’ (p. 48).
An additional problem that Vanaik could
have added to the list has to do with the
emergence of smaller nuclear weapons, called
‘tactical nuclear weapons’. Tactical nuclear
weapons are the smallest class of nuclear
bombs, although they are still extremely
powerful by conventional standards. These
weapons are destabilizing because they lower
the threshold for the military use of nuclear
weapons.
A few months ago, Pakistan announced
that it had deployed tactical nuclear weapons in response to the Indian military’s ‘cold
start’ doctrine that threatens a limited invasion
of Pakistan in the event of a terrorist
attack. The Indian strategic establishment
apparently believes that such an attack would
fall short of provoking ... Table of Contents >> |